White papers
Methodology and findings in depth: how curtailment is allocated, what storage does to price shapes, how hybrid plants should be financed.
Models & insights
The models behind our decisions, open for testing.
Every investment we make is tested on models we have built ourselves and calibrated on Greek market data. Counterparties can ask for test access to run their own assumptions.
Models
Curtailment and PV loss
An hourly simulation of the Greek system that estimates how much solar output is lost and for which reason.
Answers
How much of my plant’s output will not be paid for?
You set
- Installed solar and storage scenarios
- Demand, interconnections and must-run generation
- Curtailment allocation rules
- Annual energy loss by cause
- Hours at zero or negative prices
- Sensitivity to storage build-out
BESS performance and returns
Dispatch of a battery against hourly prices, standalone or behind a solar connection, carried through to cash flows.
Answers
What does a battery earn, and what size pays best?
You set
- Power, duration and round-trip efficiency
- Degradation and cycling limits
- Capex, opex and revenue streams
- Arbitrage and balancing revenue
- Cycles and state of health over time
- IRR and payback by battery size
Evening peak and merchant pricing
Hourly price shapes calibrated on day-ahead market data, with scenarios for the midday trough and the evening peak.
Answers
What price will my energy capture, hour by hour?
You set
- Solar and storage penetration paths
- Gas and carbon price assumptions
- Scarcity pricing in the evening hours
- Solar capture price
- Intraday spread available to storage
- Scenario price curves by year
Hybrid plant sizing
Solar and storage behind one export limit, optimised together for existing plants and new designs.
Answers
How much storage should I add to my plant?
You set
- Plant size, DC/AC ratio and export limit
- Curtailment and price scenario
- Battery cost and duration options
- Recovered energy and avoided curtailment
- Incremental revenue and return
- Optimal battery power and duration
Project finance and returns
A full project cash flow engine that produces the bank view and the investor view from the same assumptions.
Answers
How much debt does the project carry, and what does each party earn?
You set
- Feed-in premium, PPA or merchant revenue
- Debt terms, DSCR targets and reserve accounts
- Capital stack: senior, mezzanine, shareholder loans, equity
- Debt capacity and DSCR profile
- Project, sponsor and investor IRR
- Sensitivities and downside cases
Test access
Access is given on request to investors, lenders and industry counterparties. Write to us with your organisation and the model you want to use. We set up a login and walk you through the first run.
Model results are estimates based on assumptions. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Insights
We publish what we learn from our models and from the market. The first papers are in preparation.
Market notes
Short, regular readings of the Greek day-ahead market: prices, spreads, curtailment and what changed.
Opinion
Our view on regulation and market design, written from the position of a developer with capital at risk.